Forecasts, proprietary data indexes, and market commentary covering 31 leading indicators across Naples’ luxury real estate market.
NAPLES, FL, UNITED STATES, February 20, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — The Knox Brothers, a luxury advisory team operating under Compass, today released the End of 2025 Edition of the Naples Intelligence Report—a comprehensive, data-driven market analysis covering 2,234 transactions totaling $6.58 billion across 31 leading indicators. The report serves sophisticated buyers, strategic sellers, and informed investors navigating Naples’ luxury real estate market.
The report confirms 2025 as a landmark year—headlined by a $225 million Gordon Drive transaction, one of Naples’ highest residential sales on record, and $1.39 billion in ultra-luxury volume representing 64% year-over-year growth.
“Most market reports tell stories. Ours lets the indexes tell the story,” said Brian Knox, co-founder of the Knox Brothers. “When you track 31 leading indicators across five market segments with confidence ratings on every forecast, you’re giving people something they can actually make decisions with—not just something to skim over coffee.”
Headline Findings: End of 2025
The report tracks performance across five market segments—from ultra-luxury ($10M+) through entry-level ($1M–$2M)—and reveals a market defined by strategic separation:
– Ultra-Luxury Surge: 79 transactions at $10M+ generated $1.39 billion in volume—a 64% increase over 2024. Port Royal led with 30 sales totaling $693 million at a $23.1 million average.
-Cash Buyer Dominance: Cash transactions reached 57% market-wide, 87% in the luxury tier, and 91% at ultra-luxury—effectively decoupling premium segments from interest rate sensitivity.
-Property Type Bifurcation: Single-family volume grew 15% while condo volume declined 17%. Private pool properties commanded 43% higher average prices.
-Coastal Premium: Waterfront properties commanded a 35% premium. Port Royal achieved $3,702 per square foot—nearly double the next-highest coastal market.
-Supply Constraints:** 191 new construction sales averaged $5.54 million—a 107% premium over resale. Branded residences are commanding 3x+ price premiums while constraining inventory.
One Market. Two Trajectories.
A central finding is the widening divergence between segments. The ultra-luxury buyer paid cash, negotiated approximately 9% from list price, and closed with conviction. The core market ($1M–$4M) saw transaction counts decline 9% and volume drop 8%, with 93% of properties selling below asking price.
The report rates each segment from A+ to C with specific action recommendations—from “Immediate Action” for ultra-luxury to “Monitor Only” for entry-level—giving readers segment-specific guidance rather than blanket market sentiment.
What Sets the Report Apart: The Indexes
The Naples Intelligence Report opens with a proprietary Market Insights Index scoring four dimensions of market health on a 10-point scale: Liquidity Strength (9.3), Timing Advantage (8.4), Risk Management (7.8), and Value Opportunity (7.2). These are supported by Forecast Confidence Ratings—including Coastal Scarcity (9.3/10), Cash Buyer Dominance (9.5/10), and Ultra-Luxury Growth (9.1/10).
The report also deploys proprietary analytics: a Waterfront Premium Index, Segment Bifurcation Monitor, DOM Correlation Matrix, and Regulatory Change Tracker—tools that quantify trends most agents describe anecdotally.
“We publish confidence ratings because our readers are sophisticated enough to know the difference between a high-conviction call and an educated guess,” said Jason Knox, co-founder. “If we’re only medium-confident on condo recovery timing—and we are, at 6.8 out of 10—we say so.”
2026 Forward Outlook
The base case for 2026 projects continued ultra-luxury appreciation of 5–8%, single-family leading volume growth, and total market transactions increasing 4–6%. The report identifies three variables under surveillance: S&P 500 stability, insurance rate trajectory, and branded development absorption.
The report also positions Naples against Miami Beach, Palm Beach, Aspen, Hamptons, and Scottsdale—demonstrating higher cash concentration, faster growth, and relative value positioning compared to competing luxury destinations.
Methodology
The report draws from 52 verified databases including Southwest Florida MLS, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the proprietary Knox Brothers transaction database built from over $200M in negotiated contracts. The methodology includes 18-month forward-looking algorithms, triple-source confirmation for all material forecasts, and a minimum 70% confidence threshold for published predictions.
About The Knox Brothers Real Estate
The Knox Brothers is a luxury real estate advisory team led by brothers Brian and Jason Knox, operating under Compass in Naples, Florida. With over $200M in negotiated contracts across Naples’ most exclusive communities, the team combines proprietary market intelligence, pre-market access through their Vault system, and concierge-level advisory services. Their approach—”Building Legacies, Not Just Transactions”—reflects a commitment to data-driven strategy, discretion, and long-term thinking.
Brian Knox
The Knox Brothers
+1 239-451-5600
knoxbrothers@compass.com
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